The Rational Case for Moving McNabb

So a lot of things have happened over the past two days. First, Andy Reid had a secret rendezvous with the Inquirer’s Ashley Fox and told her that he was (surprise!) listening to offers for quarterbacks. Then, Andy reiterated this at the NFC coaches’ brunch at the owners’ meetings yesterday. Finally, and most importantly, my sister missed her bus this morning and I had to drive her to school.

Now, in order to grasp the severity of this scenario, you must understand that I live and work in Boston, but I’m on break (being a teacher rocks like that) and so I’m home for a couple weeks. So my sister drags me out of my glorious vacation slumber at 6:30 this morning to inform me that she needs a ride, and while I am about to tell her that she in fact is sick and cannot go to school, I wake up and get ready to drive her.

The result of this little anecdote is that I got to listen to 610’s morning show for the first time in forever. Oh the things you can’t appreciate until you no longer have them. Being a Philly fan in Boston can be rough: Beantowners are arrogant, self-righteous, “we’ll win every major sports championship because 86 years of Red Sox futility makes us entitled.” One thing that I appreciate about being away from the Delaware Valley, though, is that I’m a little more distanced from the blindly passionate, foaming-at-the-mouth fans like the ones who call into the morning show.

This morning, I was reminded of all the little things to dislike about Donovan McNabb: he plays air guitar, he throws up, he throws into the ground, he loses every year in the playoffs, he smiles when he loses every year in the playoffs, he’s never accountable. Some of these are valid points, but not one person who called into that show (or for that matter, self-proclaimed God of all things Philly, Angelo Cataldi) mentioned the rational case for trading McNabb, and that is what I plan to present to you today.

The pieces for this argument are everywhere; in fact, I’m sure that any Eagles fan who can look at themselves in the mirror and honestly say that they know a thing about this team have worked this all out in his or her head already. But I haven’t heard anyone actually say it. I would have shared it with the masses on WIP, but my cell phone slipped out of my pocket while I was driving and fell all the way to the back seat, so I guess it was just destined for Homeboyznetwork.

The Rational Case for Moving McNabb:

McNabb is hands down the greatest quarterback in Eagles history. He almost certainly gives the Eagles the best chance of winning a Super Bowl next year. These are pretty much the only arguments for keeping McNabb in 2010. The problem is that that “chance” of winning the Super Bowl isn’t all that great. It doesn’t take Sherlock Holmes (magnifying glass, ear-flapped double brimmed hat Sherlock Holmes, not Robert Downey Junior, kung fu Sherlock Holmes) to know that this team has too many holes to plug for this season through the draft. Prepared to do some counting? You need one defensive end, preferably one defensive tackle, one or two linebackers, a corner back, preferably another safety, and at least one, but preferably two offensive linemen. That’s at least four, and more realistically eight impact players you need to make this a legitimate Super Bowl caliber team. Andy might not say that we’re rebuilding, but the fact that no one out of the group of Julius Peppers, Aaron Kampman, Kyle Vandenbosch, and Antonio Pierce even made it to Philly for a visit should tell you something. It’s entirely possible that the Eagles could pick up four players in this draft who will contribute down the line, but they won’t turn this team from mediocre to elite in their rookie season.

So what does this all mean? It means that even if McNabb stays for 2010, and even if he has a career year, and even if he doesn’t choke in the playoffs, this team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl will be skinnier than Todd Pinkston.

This should make the rational fan ask “Why keep McNabb then, if we’re not going to win a Super Bowl next year anyway?” And the boneheaded response would be “Because we can extend him and go for a Super Bowl in 2011 or 2012 when this young team really hits their prime.” But hold on there, buckaroo. First, know that there’s a strong likelihood that there won’t be a 2011 season due to an impending lockout. So let’s put aside the probability that we’d get more of the same for McNabb in 2011, and imagine the worst case scenario. Do you really want a 35 year old McNabb, turning 36 in November of that year, leading this team onto the field in 2012? Donovan’s had his fair share of injuries, and you have to believe that sooner or later he’ll start to decline. Even in 2011, you could probably expect to see a slower Donovan with less arm strength to go along with his inaccuracy. Does it make sense to keep 5 around for that? The bittersweet truth is that McNabb is exiting his prime as the rest of this team’s stars are entering theirs. When this team is at it’s peak, Donovan will be on the decline. Kevin Kolb is somewhat of a gamble at this point, but relying on McNabb in two or three seasons is at least equally risky.

Add to this the contract situation. The Eagles want to extend Kolb. If they didn’t, they would have traded him to Cleveland weeks ago. If you start McNabb this year, what does that tell Kolb? He might want to resign in Philly in the offseason, but I doubt he’d hesitate if another club offered more money. If you make him the starter now, not only do you give him an earlier start to really develop in this offense, but an extension is basically in the bag. If the Eagles have identified Kolb as the future, this impasse marks the logical crossroads to begin that future.

Finally, analysts have hailed the 2010 draft as being especially deep, specifically on the defensive side of the ball. You’re going to have to get rid of McNabb at some point, be it now or five years from now. You might as well make the most of it and help yourself where you need it most.

There are things that Donovan McNabb does that irritate me, and I’ll admit that I’m bitter about his 1 for 5 performance in NFC title games. If you put all of that aside, though, you still know what McNabb brings, you know that he can only bring that for a couple more seasons, and you know that with this team it’s not enough to win the Super Bowl. Does going with Kolb guarantee success down the line? No, but I’d bet on a Super Bowl in 2012 with Kolb at the helm over a 2010 title behind the greatest quarterback in franchise history.